Sadly, ‘regional’ policies are the enemy of rural areas

Led by Barnaby Joyce the National Party is again missing the opportunity to invest in serious reform and improvement of rural health services. Instead it is pursuing a national resource agenda in just 9 of Australia’s 47 rural electorates. This provides manna for large multinationals but leaves people in the other 38 rural electorates with poor prospects for improved health and health services.

Sports clubs are happy to play the game

In the 2022 election campaign Barnaby Joyce has had his chequebook out to pay for some relatively small local gifts along The Wombat Trail. Recent mentions have included $25 million for an upgrade of the Shepparton Sports Stadium; $600,000 to improve amenities at the Armidale Rams Rugby League Club; and $3.3 million to the Burdekin Shire Council to expand the Ayr Industrial Estate.

One of the trickiest things about such proposals is whether, should the Coalition be returned, they will be supported by the Liberal Party and so become real commitments in the context of a Budget.

But we need to look elsewhere for the real news on what the National Party is doing. The serious money promised by the Nationals for ‘the regions’ is for major infrastructure work in a small number of mining areas, their railheads and associated infrastructure.

Better health is expected to trickle down –

Despite its claims, the National Party has no appetite for direct investment in better rural health services across the whole of rural Australia. Instead, it is happy to rely on the trickle-down health benefits from resource industries, many of which are run by large multinational corporations. The exception is $146 million for the bottomless pit that is the program to try to improve the distribution of GPs.

The narrow focus of the National Party becomes less of a concern when one identifies the proportion of truly rural electorates it holds. Right now it holds just 10 of 47 electorates that are properly ‘rural’. The Liberal Party holds 13 and the ALP 12. The Liberal National Party (LNP) has nine – all of them in Queensland – meaning that the Coalition as a whole (Liberal plus LNP pus Nationals) has 32 of 47, or 68 per cent. Three rural seats are held by Independents.

(Note: members of the LNP who are elected can choose to join the National Party’s caucus rather than the Liberals’. This adds further confusion to what is already a bizarre parliamentary arrangement.)

‘Rural Electorates’ 2019-2022: as defined by AEC classification plus area

PartyAEC ProvincialAEC RuralAEC Outer Metro.Total ‘Rural electorates’ %
Liberal2 1011328
LNP3 6   919
Nationals1 9 1021
ALP4 711226
Independents0 3   3  6
Adjusted total10 35247 100

These numbers are based on two criteria. The first is the Australian Electoral Commission’s (AEC’s) categorisation of each of the 151 federal divisions (electorates) to one of four ‘demographic ratings’ on the basis of the location of enrolled voters. The third and fourth categories are Provincial and Rural. Those deemed Provincial are “outside capital cities, but with a majority of enrolment in major provincial cities”. The AEC’s Rural electorates are those “outside capital cities and without majority of their enrolment in major provincial cities”.

The second criterion for inclusion in the list is spatial size (area). Whatever their AEC classification, electorates of less than  1,913km² are excluded. (This is the size of the of the ACT electorate of Bean contested for the first time in 2019. Although it is part of the Bush Capital, no-one would dare suggest that it is ‘rural’! By way of comparison, Eden-Monaro has an area of 41,617 km² and Durack in WA 1,383,954km2.)

The AEC classifies 61 electorates as Provincial or Rural

Of the 151 federal electorates, the AEC classifies 23 as Provincial and 38 as Rural. Thirteen AEC-Provincials and three AEC-Rurals are excluded on the basis of small size. They include Geelong, Gosford, three seats in Newcastle, Townsville, the Blue Mountains and the Gold Coast. Eight of the 16 excluded are held by the ALP.

The AEC’s 61 less 16, plus two AEC-Outer Metros (included on the basis of large area) makes 47. A list of the 47 rural electorates as defined by these criteria is at the foot of this article.

Rural electorates by Party, 2019-2022

Rural health v. regional infrastructure

The National Party refers to rural and remote areas as ‘the regions’. To the extent that they treat rural affairs as a priority at all, it is through a focus on mineral-rich regions that underpin Australia’s export income, GDP and affluence.

But the majority of Australia’s rural and remote people are not in such regions. They are in rural or regional centres or small country towns with mixed economies based on agriculture, service sectors (especially health and education), retail, tourism and transportation.

Beardy Street in Armidale

The most important thing about Barnaby Joyce’s return to leadership of the National Party was not the impact of renewed leadership but the opportunity to re-negotiate the secret deal with the Prime Minister. Joyce seems to have demanded a high price for Nationals’ support for – or at least acquiescence to – a policy of net zero emissions by 2050. It remains to be seen whether this was a core promise or whether it is “all over bar the shouting”.

Given its secrecy, the precise dollar figure extracted by Barnaby Joyce this time is unknown. The AFR has reported that, in addition to the one extra seat in Cabinet, the cost will be $17-34 billion over the coming decade. Budget documents show $17 billion in extra spending for road and rail projects, $6.9 billion for water infrastructure projects (dams) in regional communities, and $2 billion for a “regional accelerator program to drive transformative economic growth and productivity in regional areas”.

Armed with this treasure chest, since his return to leadership of the Party, Joyce has made massive budgetary promises to four regions: the Pilbara, the Northern Territory (including Darwin), the Hunter, and North and Central Queensland. These are critical for Australia’s economic wellbeing. And no-one should begrudge them the support they will need to maintain their enormous economic contributions while the economy as a whole is transitioning to lower dependence on carbon.

But these four regions are contained within just nine of the 47 rural electorates. The Pilbara and associated infrastructure are in Durack, and the Northern Territory comprises two electorates. The chief mineral resource operations of North and Central Queensland are in five electorates: Leichhardt, Kennedy, Dawson, Flynn and Capricornia. (Herbert is less than 100 km² in size and provincial.) Many of the mineral resources currently being exploited in New South Wales are in the seat of Hunter, with three seats in Newcastle also heavily engaged.

Most rural towns are not dependent on mineral exports –

What about the people of the other 38 rural electorates?

It is not a matter of investment in mining infrastructure being a  waste. The nation is very heavily dependent on mineral exports. But following his success in taking the Prime Minister to the cleaners in their secret agreement, Barnaby Joyce has so far failed to recognise the importance of reform of the rural health sector and the integration of improvements in the social determinants across all parts of the country.

Trickle-down or crumbs from the table is no way to treat the people of 38 rural electorates covering places like Uralla and Eucumbene, Kojonup and Kempsey, Port Augusta, Port Arthur and Port Fairy. It will do nothing in the short term for people in these areas who are unemployed, living with a disability, hoping to age in place, find it difficult to access education, or experience significant disease risk factors.

National Party Royalty: Doug Anthony, Jack McEwen, Peter Nixon and Ian Sinclair, 1969.

Australia’s 47 Rural Electorates

  AEC RuralHeld byState
DawsonLNPQueensland
FlynnLNPQueensland
LeichhardtLNPQueensland
MaranoaLNPQueensland
Wide BayLNPQueensland
WrightLNPQueensland
FarrerLiberalNew South Wales
BarkerLiberalSouth Australia
GreyLiberalSouth Australia
BraddonLiberalTasmania
CaseyLiberalVictoria
MonashLiberalVictoria
WannonLiberalVictoria
DurackLiberalWA
ForrestLiberalWA
O’ConnorLiberalWA
LyonsALPTasmania
McEwenALPVictoria
Eden-MonaroALPNew South Wales
GilmoreALPNew South Wales
HunterALPNew South Wales
RichmondALPNew South Wales
LingiariALPNorthern Territory
GippslandNationalsVictoria
MalleeNationalsVictoria
NichollsNationalsVictoria
CalareNationalsNew South Wales
LyneNationalsNew South Wales
New EnglandNationalsNew South Wales
PageNationalsNew South Wales
ParkesNationalsNew South Wales
RiverinaNationalsNew South Wales
IndiIndependentVictoria
KennedyIndependentQueensland
MayoIndependentSouth Australia
AEC ProvincialsHeld byState
BassLiberalTasmania
CapricorniaLNPQueensland
GroomLNPQueensland
HinklerLNPQueensland
CowperNationalsNew South Wales
HumeLiberalNew South Wales
BallaratALPVictoria
BendigoALPVictoria
CorangamiteALPVictoria
BlairALPQueensland
AEC Outer Metro.  
CanningLiberalWA
FranklinALPTasmania
These are the 47 true rural electorates (as at 2022).

Vaccination: Accounting for the muddle

Note: this is the third of three posts that have been delayed as I tried unsuccessfully to have them published elsewhere.

               ‘An account represents a detailed record of changes that have occurred in a particular asset during the accounting period. All these separate accounts are kept in a loose leaf binder, and the entire group of accounts is called a ledger. The ledger is a record which provides all important information.’

 A ledger is needed for Australia’s vaccination program. To date it has been a muddle, but there’s plenty more to do and therefore plenty of opportunity to improve it.

The ledger must provide information to the public. This means that it must be both open and constructed and written in a language people can understand.

The asset is the vaccine, still in short supply. The business is Australia. The Board is the government. The CEO is Scott Morrison. (There is soon to be a shareholders’ meeting and the Board will be looking to the CEO to protect their reputation and their remuneration.)

Both sides of the ledger need to be considered.

Vaccine supply

Of all factors in the vaccination muddle, nothing has been more significant than the shortage of vaccine supply.

The Morrison government must show more trust in the public and take them into their confidence where vaccine supply is concerned. The public needs and deserves to see the details of expected supply of vaccine over the next 12 months and more.

What is the anticipated delivery schedule for Pfizer and Moderna? Will there possibly be others? What progress on a vaccine for under 12 year olds? Greg Hunt has said that a million doses of Moderna will arrive in Australia in late September and 10 million Moderna shots are scheduled to be delivered to Australia this year.

AstraZeneca: in economic terms, an inferior good??

Just this week 1 million doses of Pfizer have been received in a swap deal with Singapore. Are more such arrangements possible?

The Federal Government may not be certain how much will be delivered from overseas or when. But the public should kept informed. The Government should inform them even when things are uncertain and, especially, when plans become unavoidably changed – when targets can’t be met. Given such information the public will feel more involved and more supportive of whatever timeline is necessary.

The supply side of the ledger is also being affected on an almost daily basis by variations in the planned period between a first and second jab. It seems extraordinary that there is no readily available chart showing the best estimates from the research community around the world of the changes in efficacy for the various vaccines consequent upon changes to the time between first and second dose.

Individuals are making decisions every day without information about changes in efficacy and the gap between the first and second. GPs have been trusted with providing decisive advice to their patients without clear knowledge of projected changes in efficacy.

Vaccine demand

One of the most egregious problems is that there has been a very undisciplined approach to the setting of priorities for vaccination and, more importantly, of action to meet them.

In January 2021 a priority ranking per population group for vaccination was agreed. The highest priority (‘1a’) was allocated to quarantine and border workers, front-line health officials, aged and disability care workers, and aged and disability care residents (emphasis added).

This order might have been forgotten but it has never been changed. How is it possible, then, that during Question Time on Monday 30 August the Prime Minister – with no sense of contrition or regret, said:

“And what we have been able to achieve this year, prior to these most recent waves hitting New South Wales, Victoria and the ACT, is that we have double-dose vaccination rates in our aged-care facilities upwards of 80 per cent. And what that has meant is that our most vulnerable in our community this year, because of the vaccines, compared to last year, and in particular the priority we placed on vaccinating those in residential aged-care facilities and ensuring that we were able to visit all of those facilities to ensure that those double-dose vaccinations were provided – that has saved hundreds (sic) and hundreds (sic sic) and hundreds of lives.”

An earlier piece on this blog has discussed the forthcoming vaccination requirements for aged care workers. Not including aged care in the home, this will apply to some 154,000 people in more than 2,700 facilities.

An analysis by the Guardian Australia, published on 25 Aug, revealed that 582 centres had vaccinated less than 50% of their workforce with a single dose, while 60 centres hade vaccinated less than 20%. (Only one in five aged care homes close to vaccinating all staff against Covid as deadline looms, Sarah Martin and Nick Evershed, Guardian, 25 Aug 2021.)

The priority order has not been discussed or changed but what has happened is that a number of other priorities have emerged and jostled with those original population groups for a place in the sun.

The process can be characterised as “The highest priorities are still not met – so let’s focus on new ones!”

With an appropriate amount of urgency, energy and innovation, it would have been possible to provide vaccinations to every patient and staff member in residential aged care in three weeks, never mind three months. What was required was an almost exclusive focus on the top priorities for a short time. Every facility could have been visited by a vaccination team, flying-squad style.

It’s the kind of logistical exercise the military are good at, as evidenced by its work after a national disaster. It would have required open, effective liaison with the facilities themselves, collaboration between State and Territory agencies, and with local government, local volunteers, the SES and local health staff. But it could have been done. It must now be done.

Instead of this blitz approach, a complicated system was devised led by private enterprise entities to deliver the vaccines. There was the occasional mention of the lack of progress, but the stronger interest shifted to other priorities, as if leaders, experts, the media and their public were bored with the old priorities and were more interested in ‘discovering’ and promoting new ones.

Decision makers and commentators have, in effect, hidden behind the phrase ‘the most vulnerable’. It has been easy to defer to this term without actually converting it into action. Now that the Delta strain has written a new script, someone has to decide on a daily basis whether to allocate the last vial of vaccine, as it were, to an elderly person, a nurse, an infant, a mobile 25-year-old, someone with a disability, an Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander person, a year 12 student, an interstate truck driver, or a paramedic.

To this vulnerability criterion were added practical, commonsense criteria about the potential seriousness of the impact on health and other essential services of sickness and the resulting absence of members of their workforce. This is still an important consideration.

With the Delta variant, the key criteria for allocation include geographical and demographic characteristics. Where you live and what contribution you are likely to make to spread of the disease have become as important as the extent to which your health is likely to be severely affected by the condition.  Some might even dare to whisper that the elderly ought to have no higher priority than young adults – the mixers and spreaders – and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people.

Both sides of the vaccine ledger need to be openly discussed. Matching projected receipt of vaccine with agreed priorities will be very difficult. Some horrible options will have to be chosen.

But with an open book and full information provided to the public, there will be greater certainty about the path towards ‘full vaccination’ and unrealistic expectations can be avoided.

It will be vital that people in priority groups do not face the same frustrations and logistical difficulties that many have already experienced. If the supply schedule suggests that there will be inadequate doses for aged and disability care, for all hospital staff (now clearly a top priority), special rollout to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities, year 12 students, selected hot-spots, et cetera,  then the expectations of people in those cohorts should not be raised above what can be accomplished.

The situation is serious. The following groups have already started to fill positions in the queue for vaccine or are scheduled to do so:

  •  all aged care staff (by 17 Sept.)
  • more aged care residents (“As of August 20, 86 per cent of aged care residents and 67 per cent of NDIS participants in residential accommodation have had at least one dose of vaccine.” ABC News, Tracking Australia’s COVID vaccine rollout numbers, Digital Story Innovation Team, 2 Sep 2021.)
  • in NSW: “New public health order requires staff to have their first vaccine dose by September 30. To continue working, staff must either be fully vaccinated by November 30 or have their second appointment booked.” (“The nation’s leaders should mandate COVID-19 vaccination for doctors, nurses and hospital cleaners, according to Australia’s peak medical body, with the federal government declaring the issue is ‘very high on the agenda’ of all state and territory chief health officers.” ABC News, Doctors back mandatory COVID-19 vaccination for health worker, Stephanie Dalzell, 31 Aug 2021.)
  • Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people. (Is there a priority order? By place? Age group?)
  • Teachers? “last week many teachers felt betrayed after the announcement that New South Wales teachers will need to be vaccinated as part of the ‘road map’ to getting students back in school, – “ “There was little detail to the announcement apart from it being implemented from November 9.”
  • inter-State truck drivers?
  • “On August 20, NSW mandated that childcare and disability support workers who live or work in a council ‘of concern’ must have received their first vaccination dose by August 30.”
  • In NSW: “Authorised workers who live in an LGA of concern and need to leave it for work are only permitted to do so if their employer has implemented rapid antigen testing, or they have had their first vaccination dose by August 30.” NSW Government website, COVID-19 vaccination for workers, 1 September 2021.
  • paramedics?

And let’s not forget that it has been agreed that the next cohorts will be 16-39-year-olds (from early Sept) and 12-15-year-olds from 13 September.

While ever there is a shortage it will be essential to set priorities and stick to them.

Let’s get on board with Buckley. They’re all we have.

Note: this is the third of three posts that have been delayed as I tried unsuccessfully to have them published elsewhere. 

A punter’s guide to the review of Medicare items and the impact on patients’ out-of-pocket costs

How good is a race!

In the Current Health Policy Stakes, Covid-19 is still distancing all other runners. Back in the pack Men’s Health Week has been promoted to a spot on the rails, but it is the stayer Out-of-pocket Costs that takes the eye. His half-brother, Costs Paid by Patients for Surgery, is well placed, while Mental Illness seems to be finding the going tough. Remote General Practice (by Wayside Chapel out of ABC News Breakfast) is surprising her critics. However all of these, which are in effect racing for second place behind the pandemic, have an eye on Changes to Medicare. This experienced old galloper is threatening with a run down the middle of the course.

——–

A complex system

The system of payment for medical treatment in Australia is fiendishly complex. Before we set out on a  brief explication, it will be useful to remember that doctors are Business People, specialists are Big End of Town Business People, and insurance companies have commercial interests that span the divide between patient and specialist.

Another significant divide is between those who have private health insurance and those who do not. Only families who might be described as ‘middle-income and above’ can afford private health insurance, which reflects some of the growing inequality among Australian families. Families with low incomes have free access to the services of a public hospital, including for surgery, but are merely bystanders to the private health system.

The proposed changes currently being implemented do not pose a threat to the general principles of Medicare, which are to give all eligible persons the choice to receive, free of charge: the services provided by public hospitals; no-cost or low-cost services from general practitioners and certain medical specialists; and no-cost or low-cost access to medicines listed on the Schedule of Pharmaceutical Benefits. So, experienced though she is, Changes to Medicare should not end up in the winner’s circle.

Medicine means business

Medicare pays a significant amount towards the costs of surgery, regardless of whether the patient has private health insurance or not.

Every particular surgical procedure has a ‘descriptor’ and a standard cost (or fee) struck by the government. Each descriptor defines precisely what the item entails.

The list of descriptors and standard costs is the Medicare Benefits Schedule (MBS). If the procedure is undertaken on a public patient in a public hospital they will have no out-of-pocket costs. The provider (the hospital and surgical team) will in effect earn just the schedule fee.

There are two critical factors in determining how much a patient will pay for surgery. First, each surgeon has the right to charge whatever fee they wish. They are not bound by the standard fee set for the MBS. Second is the patient’s choice of insurer and that insurer’s arrangements with the surgeon who does the job.

So, for example, if the surgeon sets their fee for a particular procedure at 120% of the schedule fee, the MBS will pay 75%, the insurance company 25%, and the patient 20% from their own pocket.

Families with private health insurance are the lucky ones. They would probably be surprised to know that, ironic though it may seem, they are in the hands of insurance companies when it comes to the costs they will pay for surgery. The health insurance companies negotiate commercial agreements with specialists on behalf of patients.

A ‘known gap’ agreement has the insurer entering into a contract with the surgeon so that the patient’s out-of-pocket payment is fixed and known in advance. With a ‘no gap’ agreement the insurer pays the full amount of the difference between the schedule fee and the surgeon’s fee. All of these agreements will need to be reviewed as a result of the MBS review’s recently released recommendations.

Even where there is a no gap arrangement, to avoid what is called ‘bill shock’, the patient needs to find out beforehand what costs associated with the surgery are not subject to the arrangement between the insurer and the surgeon. These unavoidable other costs may include the anaesthetist’s fee, the cost of pathology undertaken as part of the procedure and perhaps medications.

The waiting lists for surgery in public hospitals are much longer than for private patients – those who have health insurance. As well as having less time to wait, private patients can choose the surgeon who will undertake the procedure. (And their hospital room will be nicer.)

For a private patient the MBS pays 75% of the schedule fee. And if that patient’s health insurance company has an arrangement with the surgeon, that company will pay the remaining 25% of the schedule fee (if they have a ‘no gap’ agreement with the surgeon) or a specified amount up to 25% (under a ‘known gap’ agreement).

What has been reviewed?

In 2015 a review of all 5,700 Medicare item numbers began. It was to check on which health service items should continue to be included in the Medicare payment system; how each one is described (the descriptor); and the schedule fee that was to apply for each.

Such a review is sensible and there has been general support for the updating of the standard prices for particular items and of the descriptors. The review involved separate committees for each area of the MBS, and there were extensive consultations.

The government has already announced changes to the items relating to many areas of medicine, some of them in the May 2021 Budget. They have included intensive care, diagnostic imaging, chemotherapy, gynaecology, and pain management.

 The final report was presented to the government in late 2020. It contains 156 changes to general surgery items, 594 to orthopaedic surgery, and 135 to heart surgery items.

It is not the substance of the proposed changes that have upset medical interests, but their timing. Even when it is managed effectively it is hard enough for the government of the day to meet the political challenge of making changes to Medicare, given how much it is relied upon and supported by the Australian public.

This time the government seems to have shot itself in the foot. It has announced that, from 1 July, the rebates payable for private orthopaedic, general and heart surgeries will change. This gives surgeons and health insurers very little time to agree new no-cost and low-cost contracts.  

Insurers could use the opportunity provided by these negotiations to bring down the level of fees, which would enable them to reduce the cost of their insurance packages. But unfortunately there isn’t a flying pig in the Current Health Policy Stakes.

Why does Victoria top the score?

One of the aspects of the Covid-19 pandemic which will certainly be the subject of inquiry in Australia once things have settled down is why Victoria has had more lockdowns and cases than the other States. And it’s not the first time Victoria has been in this position. How McDougall Topped the Score, written by Thomas E. Spencer, has been re-made and is shown below. It will remind readers of the Swine Flu epidemic of 2009 in which Victoria also set some records.

(Note: I posted a version of the poem, but not the COVID comments, on 9 March but given what is happening in Victoria it deserves another go. I look forward to the time when it is no longer relevant.)

At the time of writing (29 May 2021) there have been 30,073 cases of COVID-19 in Australia, 20,580 of which have been in Victoria. Of the 910 deaths recorded, 820 have been Victorians.

This represents an extraordinary imbalance between States.

A number of possible explanations for the disparity have been canvassed.

One is that the different structure of public health services in Victoria as distinct from, say, New South Wales has resulted in greater effectiveness in the latter. It may be that the pre-existing New South Wales system was more compatible with what was needed for effective contact tracing. New South Wales has decentralised Local Area Health Districts with public health teams embedded in local communities. These teams work independently while being guided by New South Wales Health centrally.

Catherine Bennett, Chair in Epidemiology at Deakin University and a key contributor to public understanding and debate, wrote in The Conversation in October 2020:

“NSW’s system of devolved public health units and teams meant when local outbreaks occurred, locally embedded health workers were at an advantage. They’re already linked with local area health providers for testing, they already have relationships with community members and community leaders, and they know the physical layout of the area.”

“What’s crucial is a nuanced understanding of local, social, and cultural factors that may facilitate spread or affect how people understand self-isolation and what’s being asked of them. It can also make a critical difference in encouraging people to come forward for testing.”

“If local health workers and contact tracers are already part of a community, they can bring that expert knowledge into the mix; they can make sure public health messaging is meaningful for local communities.”

In contrast to the situation in NSW, Victoria has a public health system which is highly centralised, meaning there was a smaller base upon which to build a surge contact tracing capacity. The fact that some help was provided to Victoria from interstate staff and defence force personnel may be seen  as evidence on the matter.

The different capacity of these two State systems may also be due to their recent history of funding relative to need. On the other side of the ledger is the fact that a centralised system may be better able to handle large quantities of data.

Another possible cause of the inter-State disparity is the difference in the structure of residential aged care. Of the 910 deaths recorded nationally, 685 have been in residential aged care facilities. And 655 of these have been in Victoria.

Compared with NSW, Victoria’s residential aged care system has a larger proportion of private for-profit businesses, which may have put profit before service. In Victoria 54% of residential aged care places are in the private, for-profit sector (including both family-owned and public companies) compared with 35% in NSW. In contrast, 37% of Victoria’s aged care places are in the not-for-profit sector (including religious, charitable and community-based organisations), compared with 63% in NSW. Much more evidence would be needed to conclude that the profit motive is at the heart of the difference between the two States.

One of the reasons why Australia has done so well in response to the pandemic is that we have been regularly and expertly provided with scientific evidence. This has contributed to the high level of compliance in Australia with the steps that have been necessary.

In my view, two expert commentators have stood out. Norman Swan has been tremendously busy including with the ABC’s daily Coronavirus podcast. Norman came to the business of COVID with an existing good reputation as a well-credentialed scientist  and is a  very experienced communicator. Another expert who has worked tirelessly and presented with great clarity, dignity and modesty is Mary-Louise McLaws, Professor of Epidemiology at the University of New South Wales.

On ABC’s weekend breakfast TV show today, when asked for her views on why Victoria has suffered more than the other jurisdictions, Mary-Louise said that Melbourne is a very close-knit community. It is a city that’s easy to get around, she said, so sadly it is easy for a virus to spread. Melbourne is the city of most concern in Australia for explosions of case numbers.

This means that enquiries into Australia’s COVID experience will need to include cultural, logistical, demographic, economic and sociological factors.

History repeating itself?

This is not the first time Victoria has stood out as the worst affected part of Australia in an epidemic. On 8 June 2009 The Australian newspaper informed its readers that, at that time, the State of Victoria had the highest recorded per capita rate of H1N1 Influenza 2 (Human Swine flu) in the world. It had the fourth highest number of infections worldwide after the US, Mexico and Canada, but the highest per capita load.

Victoria was being blamed for exporting the virus around Australia.

Eventually the official record showed 37,537 cases in Australia and 191 deaths associated with Swine Flu were reported by the Department of Health. The actual numbers were probably much larger as only serious cases warranted being tested and treated. Sources say that as many as 1600 Australians may actually have died.

How McDougall Topped the Score, written by Thomas E. Spencer, was first published in The Bulletin in March 1898. The cricketing cred. of the poem was enhanced when a piece entitled The Prerogative of Piper’s Flat was given as an encore to the McDougall poem at a public reception for the great, the elegant Victor Trumper in Sydney Town Hall on 19 December 1903.

In June 2009 I wrote a companion piece to Spencer’s, based on the facts as reported in the Australian. So much of the content of the piece seems relevant today that I am bold enough to hope you will get something out of it.

Reminders

Given the time that has elapsed since June 2009 some further background will be useful for those who read the piece. On 23 May the Federal Government classified the Swine Flu outbreak as being in the CONTAIN phase. Victoria was escalated to the SUSTAIN phase on 3 June. This gave government authorities permission to close schools to slow the spread of the disease. On 17 June 2009 the Department of Health and Ageing introduced a new phase called PROTECT. This modified the response to focus on people with high risk of complications from the disease.

At the time Australia had a stockpile of 8.7 million doses of Tamiflu and Relenza. A large scale immunization effort against swine flu started on Monday 28 September 2009. By then Victoria had 2,440 cases and 24 deaths. The Victorian health authorities closed Clifton Hill Primary School for two days (sic) on 21 May (shock, horror).

Tamiflu was a Roche product, Relenza a GSK product. (In  2014 researchers threw doubt on the effectiveness of Tamiflu and thus on the value of governments stockpiling it.) In June 2009 the Minister for Health was Nicola Roxon, Member for Gellibrand, an inner-Melbourne electorate. Coincidentally, in 2015 Tadryn bought a house in Footscray, within spitting distance of Whitten Oval. As well as describing folks from Mexico, the term ‘Mexicans’ is used by people from States to the north to refer to people from Victoria. Australia’s Chief Medical Officer in 2009 was Jim Bishop.

How Victoria Topped the Score

A peaceful spot is Gellibrand – and many local folk

Exist by work in railways, and paper, tyres and rope

The views to sea are legend and the people, quite untaught –

Lean naturally to leftwards, as portside people ought

Still the climate is erratic as the natives always knew

And the winters damp and gusty bring on frequent bouts of flu

But the locals now are Tami-rous as never were before

As H1N1 gets around – and Victoria tops the score.

It’s 90 square kilometres right to Port Philip Bay

Embracing Whitten Oval where the Bulldogs hone their play

Includes Altona Meadows where the views are simply grand

And other lovely places now warehousing used to stand

From Spotswood through to Tottenham employment, once serene,

Depends on heavy industry, petrochemical, marine

The local folks are very proud, be they so rich or poor

But they all might be affected as Victoria tops the score.

It’s Inner Metropolitan (GPs’ incentives: nil –

For the local branch of the AMA this is a bitter pill)

So when a virus came along – exclusion was in vain –

The local health care services got ready for the strain. 

Local people everywhere did all that they were asked

And courses sprang up all around on kissing through a mask

A local hero came along: Gellibrander to the core

Who meant to keep the lid on it – tho’ Victoria topped the score.

This hero was a lawyer and a trusted one at that

And in the middle order for young Kevin she would bat

She trained her loyal staffers how to listen and to scout

For useful tips, intelligence, whatever was about

And each succeeding night they worked ’til the light it was a blur

Sometimes our hero struck a thought, sometimes a thought struck her

’Til one day news from Mexico of which she’d hear much more

That swine flu was now all the rage – not too long from our shore.

The national plans were then rolled out – even Bishops were involved

Good health care teams and scientists all helped to have it solved

No stone was left un-x-rayed and surveillance was maintained

And people’s sensitivity was measured when de-planed

A hotline was established but it very soon was broke

And crackling then was all it gave to its inquiring folk

The public mind was set at ease, there sure was nothing more

And New South Wales got uppity, as Victoria topped the score. 

Victoria’s reached a thousand and some medics now complain

Even tho’ officially it’s-on ‘modified sustain’

If children want to miss exams and have a full week off

They simply visit Gellibrand and then begin to cough

We all will do whate’er we can to try to keep the peace

We’ll quit the smokes and exercise ’gin morbidly obese

This gentle flu, still not a swine, in countries seventy four

And here it’s still Victoria that easy tops the score

This illness from the Mexicans is causing a to-do

And now is a pandemic if you credit you-know-WHO

But guided safely as we are from right the very top

We’re confident that this will pass, it’s likely soon to stop

So raise a glass – or a long pipette – to our Gellibrander boss

‘Cos even tho it’s not too strong it makes us all la-cross

And there may well be an upside – tho’ it’s touchy this to broach

For you won’t catch a cold at all just now if your shares are still with Roche

So let’s consign to history, make part of national lore

The time when, quite unwillingly, Victoria topped the score

leanne@ruralhealth: the woman behind the email address

No More: leanne@ruralhealth.org.au

It was the end of an era last week with Leanne Coleman’s departure from the National Rural Health Alliance (NRHA) to work on the staff of Kristy McBain, MHR, the Member for Eden-Monaro.

For a quarter of a century people involved with the health and well-being of those who live in rural and remote Australia have been receiving messages from leanne@ruralhealth.org.au. Thousands upon thousands of people have been provided with information from that source about events related to improving rural health and well-being. The information has been provided in good time, with precision and, continually, with an inclusiveness based on Leanne’s polite indifference to the status or position of people who care for – or might be persuaded to care for – the well-being of those in danger of being left behind simply because of where they live.

This natural ability of Leanne to deal with all people in the same open, respectful and task-oriented fashion, irrespective of their formal status, was first observed when she worked in the office of John Kerin in Parliament House. In her time on John Kerin’s staff, Leanne served as Personal, Cabinet and Appointments Secretary.

John Kerin and a couple of Leannes

In that last position she was required to manage the Minister’s diary; arrange travel and accommodation for him and his staff; and organise meetings. Following the Minister’s decision, it was Leanne’s job to inform people and to make all of the arrangements for a meeting to happen – or not, because there were always more requests than could be met. As Minister for Primary Industries and Energy, John Kerin undertook an immense amount of travel, both within Australia and overseas. His diary was a thing of great logistical complexity, especially as he liked to be in his electorate in south-west Sydney for the party’s branch meetings on Monday nights.

Flowers from Helen, designed by Catherine

John Kerin was one of those who attended a celebratory dinner last week to recognise the value of Leanne’s service to him and, even more so, to the people of rural Australia during her 25 years at the NRHA. By the time she joined the NRHA this young woman from Queanbeyan had become a mature and valuable asset to any organisation with administrative complexity and the aspiration to grow its effectiveness, its policy footprint and its contacts database.

Jenny, Stephen and Catherine o’Flower

It would be quite unfair to equate Leanne’s email address with the woman herself. But the reality is that many thousands of people who have never met her face-to-face have had the opportunity to contribute to better health for rural people because of Leanne’s networking abilities. And her main means of communication, since its arrival on the scene, has been email.

Lyn Eiszele and Peter Brown

In her later years at the NRHA her substantive job was as Manager of Programs and Events, a position she took over from Lyn Eiszele, from whom she learned the ropes of professional conference organising. In this capacity Leanne was responsible for every aspect of the administration, promotion, budget and (in conjunction with the NRHA’s policy staff) professional content of the biennial National Rural Health Conference. This is the NRHA’s largest and most important project and Leanne has played a key role in building and maintaining the reputation of the event, both for its contribution to professional developments in rural and remote health, and for its culture. Leanne was also responsible for leadership of the Conference team of staff and volunteers. 

Andrew and Lindsay

The Conference has won awards for education and for social responsibility and through Leanne the NRHA has provided advice and support on conference and event management to other like-minded organisations.

with Jenny

But Leanne’s effective leadership and management of the conference and other meetings is put in the shade by her roles with the NRHA’s social media presence and content. Leanne almost single-handedly invented, grew and managed the NRHA’s Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and Youtube activities. While other members of staff were busy tending their own gardens, Leanne – recognising the potential value of the new platforms and methods to an organisation like the NRHA – just got down and did it.

Friends of the Alliance is a group of people and organisations who know the NRHA well and seek to support its work. So its members are people who will not only recognise the email address but will have had sufficient contact with the real Leanne to recognise her unique qualities and to value her friendship. They are among the lucky ones.

Kellie and Alpha

Our recent dinner in Canberra – appropriately socially distanced and with only a small amount of singing – was testament to the high esteem in which those who know Leanne hold her. Two past Chairpersons phoned in to thank Leanne for her service. And Warren Snowdon, on a dodgy phone link from Alice Springs, recognised that the greater challenges posed by engagement with people in remote areas and Aboriginal communities were never too much for her.

with Frank [OneVision] Meany

John Kerin braved the unlit external stairs at the venue to reflect on Leanne’s time well-served in his office; and the bolder or more loquacious of her NRHA colleagues, past and present, who we could fit into the COVID-restricted space, ventured various warm opinions as to her contributions, work ethic and manner. Frank built a nice slide show with photos from meetings, conferences and Christmas parties. The opportunity to contribute at the dinner was missed by many ex-colleagues who were unable to be out or could not be accommodated.

Simon, Jenny and Dave aka 60%of Skedaddle

Photography for the evening was in the hands of Janine Snowie, much loved by RAMUS scholars everywhere and by her colleagues at the NRHA.

Sue Pagura and Janine Snowie

For me the happiest tenor of the views exchanged at the dinner was that while the NRHA and rural people around the nation will miss Leanne a great deal, their loss is Eden-Monaro’s gain. The point was aptly made by Kristy McBain, Leanne’s new employer, who also phoned in her best wishes. Kristy was met with threats from around the table to pull her arms off if she fails to look after Leanne.

I’m sure she won’t fail. Together the two of them will be part of a great team.

Good times

Telehealth, demographic change – or both?

Three decades ago, in late 1990, an officer of the Commonwealth Department of Health and Community Services travelled from Canberra to Gundagai to meet with eminent rural GP Paul Mara.

Steve Catling was a UK civil servant on exchange in the Department. It was the first week of his placement, so who knows what he thought of the curious countryside through which he passed.

After his return from the trip Steve famously said to colleagues in the Department that the only solution to Australia’s rural health problems was to move everyone to the cities. That view did not stop him from working hard to help manage the 1st National Rural Health Conference in Toowoomba that took place a couple of months later (Feb. 1991).

Paul Mara chaired the Agenda Forming Committee for that conference and in that capacity had oversight of a draft prepared by Commonwealth, State and Territory officials of the very first National Rural Health Strategy. It was discussed, amended and adopted by those who attended the conference.

One of the outcomes from Toowoomba was the conversion of the Conference Committee to what was called “an ongoing advisory group on rural health”. That became the National Rural Health Alliance (NRHA).

The purpose of the NRHA, then and now, has been to challenge the view that the only solution to the nation’s rural health problem is to move everyone to the cities. It is possible, goes the argument, that by various means people living in rural and remote areas can be provided with good access to health services which gives them equity if not equality with those living in the major cities.

Thus it is that the NRHA promotes action to have health services in rural areas that are fit for purpose for such areas. This quite often requires changes to financial, regulatory and workforce arrangements compared with those that apply in metropolitan areas.

But how important are improvements to health service access compared with, say, regional development in non-metropolitan areas and the demographic change that results?

In working towards better (more equal) health for people who live in rural or remote areas it doesn’t take long to realise that what matters is not a person’s relationship with health services as much as their educational and employment status, their social and cultural background, and their genetic make-up.

This is the stuff of a social determinants approach to health – one that sees health services narrowly defined as being little more than repair shops:

Except for a few clinical preventive services, most hospitals and physician offices are repair shops, trying to correct the damage of causes collectively denoted ‘social determinants of health’.  Donald Berwick, The Moral Determinants of Health, JAMA Network (on line), June 12 2020.

Towards the end of my time with the NRHA, Martin Laverty (at that time CEO of the RFDS) led work to bring agencies together into a social determinants of health alliance. That group pointed out that, in Australia, a multi-party Senate Committee had unanimously recommended that the Government should adopt the recommendations from the World Health Organisation’s Commission on Social Determinants of Health.

Nothing has happened. The distribution of wealth in Australia has worsened.  Over a million children are living in poverty.

The Marmot Review published in the UK in 2010 asserted that work towards six objectives would reduce overall health inequalities:

  1. Give every child the best start in life
  2. Enable all children, young people and adults to maximise their capabilities and have control over their lives
  3. Create fair employment and good work for all
  4. Ensure healthy standard of living for all
  5. Create and develop healthy and sustainable places and communities
  6. Strengthen the role and impact of ill-health prevention.

So it is clear why the NRHA has to work on such an enormously wide range of matters, which some have interpreted as having the organisation skate on thin ice. Falling through has usually been avoided thanks to the fact that the NRHA is such an inherently good idea that it has proved feasible to enlist the support of experts in particular topics to join with it in its work.

The Regional Australia Institute reported this week that regional centres attracted more people aged 20-35 than the capital cities during the last two Census periods. While 180,000 millennials moved to capital cities between 2011 and 2016, more than 207,000 moved between the regions, resulting in a net inflow to regional centres of 65,204 people. From 2006-2011, this number was 70,493.

In total 1.2 million people moved to and around areas outside the capital cities between 2011 and 2016. The places concerned included Cairns, Toowoomba, Ballarat, Maitland, Bendigo and Lake Macquarie. (The big movers: understanding population mobility in regional Australia, Kylie Bourne et al, Regional Australia Institute, June 2020.)

Overall, the population of regional cities with more than 50,000 people grew 7.8 per cent, industry and service hubs with more than 15,000 residents grew at 3.3 per cent, and smaller regional areas increased 1.6 per cent. On top of this existing trend, the COVID pandemic has strengthened people’s belief that location may not be a barrier to where they choose to work.

So which is more important, telehealth or demographic change?

As a result of COVID-19 there have been very welcome extensions of Medicare benefits for telehealth consultations – the scale of which has the heads of rural health advocates spinning. But it may be that the kind of demographic changes reported by the RAI will do even more in the long run to deliver health equity to rural areas. The former improve services in the repair shop. But demographic changes are producing more central places in rural areas with the population and service characteristics necessary to stave off, for some, the time when repairs are needed.

But the real answer is both: the ice looks thick enough for a twirl.

One Health and Planetary Health

Go to the NRHA’s How humans and the environment interact for a fascinating discussion of important new schools of thought about health.

Planetary health’ considers human health in the context of the health of civilisations and the state of natural systems. A planetary approach to health requires an understanding of the implications of what humans do for the natural world. It shapes an understanding of such things as climate change, the degradation of ecosystems and the loss of biodiversity.

One Health is an integrated approach to the health of people, animals and the environment. This approach has come into much sharper focus thanks to the pandemic.

Both approaches deal with the vexed issue of the distribution of assets and how the world can be shared more fairly, especially where future generations are concerned.

The Q&A features John Wakerman, Laura Weyrich, Tony Capon and Pierre Horwitz. They argue that economic targets should be based around sustainability rather than growth. This means that general progress indicators are better measures than GDP.

In focusing on health inequities more attention should be paid to inter-generational equity and safeguarding the health of future generations. We can learn from Indigenous ways of understanding health – as for land management.

Currently our institutions, our mindset and governance systems are segmented and don’t recognise interdependencies. Life expectancy has increased in many parts of the world but at the expense of the planet’s sustainability. Human kind needs to recognise that it is part of its surroundings, not apart from them.

The speakers point out that Australia’s response to climate change has been very poor compared with its actions to date on COVID-19.

Time is overdue for health professionals, individually and as a collective, to step up to political leadership on these critical and complex matters. To help with a truly interdisciplinary approach, health researchers and professionals should learn the language of other sectors and disciplines so they can better engage with them.

Explaining the COVID-19 modelling

Modelling the transmission of infectious disease

Mathematical models of disease transmission can be used to estimate the potential impact of public health responses to infectious diseases. Recently (7 April) some details of the particular model that is being used as the basis for the decisions of Australian governments on the COVID-19 crisis have been published.

How do such models work? How can we be sure they are accurate? What do they tell us?

The headline findings from the modelling are the ones that have been delivered to us consistently in governments’ media conferences and other information activities: 

An uncontrolled COVID-19 epidemic would result in a situation dramatically exceeding the capacity of the Australian health system over a prolonged period, notwithstanding the increases in that capacity that are possible. 
A combination of case-targeted isolation measures with general
social measures will substantially reduce transmission and result in a more prolonged epidemic with lower peak incidence, fewer overall infections and fewer deaths.

As we all know, we have to stay home.

How it works

These general prescriptions from the modelling are clear and largely unchallenged. But as time passes it will be good  if there is closer scrutiny of this and other modelling. This will result in better understanding of both the general applicability of such modelling and the specific work being done on the Australian government’s preferred model.

The key variables on which mathematical models of infection are based are the latent period (i.e. the interval following exposure before an individual becomes infectious and transmits the disease), the infectious period (i.e. the period during which an infected person can transmit a pathogen to a susceptible host), and transmissibility. Transmissibility is described by the reproduction number – the number of secondary cases generated by a single infected case introduced into a susceptible population.

If the transmissibility number is less than 1, infection is receding. If it’s greater than 1, infection is spreading.

For models of this kind it is useful to know the extent to which outputs (in effect, the model’s  predictions) change in response to a given amount of variation in its inputs, and the particular input to which altered outputs can be attributed. The inputs include both the assumptions made about the structure of the entity being modelled and the data fed in.

This is the business of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. In effect they provide information about the robustness of the model – the probability of the model and its predictions being accurate reflections of reality. The greater the model’s uncertainty or sensitivity, the more its outputs change with a given amount of variation of its inputs – and the less useful it will be.

Such analyses can help check the accuracy of a model’s structure or specification by assessing the individual contribution of a variable and the need to include it or not.

They can also help interpret the results of a model by identifying thresholds for certain variables that trigger outcomes of interest.

The value of  any such modelling is limited if the model’s structure is imperfect (that is, if it makes false assumptions about the relationships between elements of the model) or if incomplete or inaccurate data are fed into it. The modelling can be run again and again with greater confidence about its accuracy as, each time, more is known about the characteristics of thepathogen and more local (Australian) data are added in.

Critically, accurate estimation of the transmissibility of a disease requires reliable data on its incidence in the total population. As we have been told time and time again, this requires “testing, testing and testing”.

In addition to the latent period, the infectious period and transmissibility, more specific variables can be included in the model, such as the structure of the population and its mobility patterns, demographic variables, risk factors and age profiles. But with every new variable included the risk of false assumptions or imperfect data is likely to increase.

The preferred Australian model for use with COVID-19

There are a number of mathematical models doing their stuff around the world on the spread of infectious diseases and the impact of various public health responses. The one that has been, and remains, the basis for the decisions of Australian governments on the COVID-19 crisis is managed by the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, a joint collaboration of  the University of Melbourne and the Royal Melbourne Hospital.

The Doherty team released to the public a paper on 7 April 2020 about their modelling work on COVID-19.

The paper is quite open about potential weaknesses of the model that stem from unavoidable uncertainties about the assumptions made and imperfect or incomplete data relating specifically to the progress of the disease in Australia. Since it is a new pathogen there are uncertainties about the true disease ‘pyramid’ for COVID-19, and a lack of information about determinants of severe (as distinct from mild) disease. In the modelling done so far, age has been used as a best proxy for the probability of symptoms becoming severe.

There are other uncertainties. The model being used has been converted from one used for influenza and there are great differences between that pathogen and COVID-19. The assumptions about reducing transmission of influenza through a combination of distancing measures come not from Australian data but from Hong Kong. The relative contributions of different measures, such as the cancellation of mass gatherings, distance working, closure of schools or cessation of non-essential services, are not yet clear.

More will be learned about these particular strategies from real time data now being collected by various Australian agencies. In turn this will enable the more precise estimation of transmissibility for COVID-19 in Australia. This will be used to update forecast trajectories of the epidemic. These will no doubt be among the key pieces of information used by governments to manage the ongoing responses to the pandemic.

Some critical unknowns

Perhaps the most serious and alarming reminder in the published paper is that low and middle-income countries will find it even harder – potentially quite impossible – to deal with the COVID-19 crisis. Their health systems are already weaker, with limited access to high level care.

Given the massive impact on world trade and damage  to the budgets of all countries, including those that are affluent that have been donors of international aid, the impact of the COVID-19 emergency on the people and governments of poorer countries may become quite unmanageable.   

Much will depend on the role played by international aid and trade in the new order.

One of the most critical omissions from Australia’s modelling to date is that it has not as yet accounted for the loss of health care workers due to illness, carer responsibilities or burnout. Nor has it accounted for shortages of critical medical supplies, because the true extent of these shortages and their likely future impacts on service provision are apparently still unknown. 

These are two aspects of the issue to which governments and others must continue to give urgent attention. Apart from anything else it reminds us of the very special place of health care workers and the risks they face. Let’s continue to applaud, thank and support them.

Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses may perhaps already have been used by the team in Melbourne to investigate any number of aspects of the modelling. For example the published paper reports that in the simulation of a case-targeted public health intervention it was assumed that 80% of the identified contacts adhered to quarantine measures. It would be useful to know how many additional ICU beds would be required if the compliance rate was 78% or 82%, for example.

With the publication of the Institute’s paper a start has been made down the track of ensuring that the public becomes more familiar with, and more trusting of, the basis of many of the decisions affecting them. It will help to equip the Australian people for the kinds of generous and determined responses that will be needed for global recovery.

Visiting The Cedars*

She greets me impassively from her chair in the corner. The lights are on; the sunlight streams in.  As usual, she smiles slightly – rather knowingly – as we kiss.*

Having been waylaid in the corridor by two gloved-up care workers on their morning round, I know she has been difficult. She is in her PJs. The workers see me as an ally in their cause and come back shortly for another go at getting her dressed.

I withdraw. Her belligerent cries are sharp and clear despite the closed door between us. They think I’m a son, although careful scrutiny of the images on the wall might disabuse them of that.

When I am readmitted she is unwillingly but smartly dressed. I chide her for fighting. She responds that only Lorita knows how to dress her properly, and she’s not on today.

One of the worst times was when I had withdrawn and heard her deeply-sourced anger about not being addressed in English. “Talk to me in English! Speak English,” she shouts.

I ask whether she would like some of the new book. She replies with an over-firm yes – in which I hear an echo of the frustration and anger so recently vented to the care workers who aren’t Lorita.

“Remind me what has happened so far.” Just to check.

“It’s very dense,” she responds, “and difficult to explain”.

“Well remember: there’s this detective from Melbourne who has returned to his hometown for a funeral of three members of one local family who have been murdered. And the father involved was a friend of the detective.”

“That’s right,” she concurs.

I am conscious of a newish symptom of my own condition: an inability to read slowly, and the consequent difficulty of providing meaning for a listener from page after page of dialogue in which one speaker may not be distinguished from another, unless one employs differential accents and sustained acting.

But she says it’s clear – just very dense.

We break off for a cup of tea – one for her and one for me: a mug half-full in case it spills, with little heat, plenty of milk and not much tea. Plus two sweet biscuits.

She takes up one of the crosswords, all of which are carefully folded down to the size of the puzzle alone from a broadsheet newspaper. Rather unusually, she keeps the pen herself and does the scribing. This is a Quick, meaning that essentially it’s a search for synonyms.

But just as for a Cryptic, for the Quick there is a code or language – not so much a language as a vocabulary. She has been speaking this language for many years and still displays a great facility for it. The clue is ‘Robust’. For a beginner the answer might be ‘vigorous’, or ‘sturdy’, or ‘tough’, or ‘powerful’, or ‘muscular’, or ‘strapping’, or ‘burly’.  But for those experienced with this language it has to be ‘strong’. Robust is always Strong.

Then there is Lees (‘Sediment from making wine’), Are (Unit of area), ‘Woman’s dress in Tyrolean style’,** and ‘Canopy over four-poster bed’***.

And so we complete the puzzle in good time, despite her sometimes being flummoxed by a transcription error caused by confusing Across and Down clues.

She has this practice of writing ‘QED’ next to the completed article when we’ve finished.

This relationship is based on having worked with both herself and her husband. An investment of 34 years which, for me, is now yielding unanticipated rewards. The quiet times, the silences are important. Shared with mutual confidence. Sometimes we both snooze.

Her attention is drawn to the window, through which the winter sun shines.

Angrily again: “Be quiet! Quiet! Shut up!! Those birds are driving me mad today” – as if to acknowledge the variety of her mood from moment to moment. And maybe as a kind of Sorry to Lorita’s co-workers.

The brightly coloured rosellas continue their flutter and chatter in the pen outside her window below.

Sharing time with her feels valuable. I wonder which parts of this complex system that is friend, family, artist, critic are broken. Mobility is limited but language and hearing are acute. The thread of thought and conversation is elusive.

It’s as if the individual parts of the system are fine but the connections between them are in poor repair.

She will walk the corridor for me, but not for the duty physio. I’ve reminded him that her hearing is acute but he still bellows his questions and encouragement. It’s as if her hearing is still governed by the perfect pitch for which she was infamous. She interprets my mumbling better than most.

I tread the corridor with her, slow steps to accompany the walking frame, both of us bent, stiff and slow.

We return to the sunlit corner. Her unused bed throbs at the selected frequency, massaging cold sheets.

We have actually had that first chapter twice already. And I’m wondering what happens next to the detective from Melbourne. I’m sure he will solve the puzzle. QED.

*For the  sake of confidentiality everything in this piece has been changed – except its emotional content.

**Dirndl

***Tester

The deluge and drought of Australia’s health reform cycle

Note: this piece was published in Croakey on 23 July 2019. My thanks to Melissa Sweet and to Amy Coopes, who edited the piece for Croakey.

Serious proposals for redesign of the structure and financing of Australia’s health system have had a chequered history. The level of enthusiasm for discussing radical reform seems to fluctuate like the water level in Lake Eyre, which turns into an oasis only every eight years or so on average.

Currently the health reform discussion cycle is in its barren phase. But ten years ago this week it was in full flood. On 27 July 2009 Prime Minister Kevin Rudd released the final report of the National Health and Hospitals Reform Commission (NHHRC).

The Commission was chaired by Christine Bennett. Its final report, entitled A Healthier Future for all Australians, offered hope of better times to come, including for rural health.

In a section headed Facing Inequities it proposed a series of initiatives for remote and rural health, on matters including equitable and flexible funding, innovative workforce models, telehealth, patient travel support, and expansion of specialist outreach services (e.g. pharmacy and dental/oral services). That same section also had proposals for better Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander health, such as improving the affordability of fresh food in remote communities.

But almost certainly the most important of its 123 proposals, because of their centrality, were the recommendations on health system governance: who should manage the health system and how.

Unwieldy and complex

 

The report recommended that Australia develop a single health system, governed by the Federal Government.

Steps to achieving this were to include a Healthy Australia Accord to agree on the reform framework; the progressive takeover of funding of public hospitals by the Federal Government; and the possible implementation of a health funding model, called Medicare Select, under which public and private health plans would compete, allowing consumers to exercise choice and preference.

The problems of the current health system governance arrangements were then and are still well known. The split between the Federal Government and the States/Territories leads to fragmentation of service delivery, cost-shifting, a lack of accountability, and enormous complexity for users of the system.

Currently there are a number of high-level matters causing concern that are related to the system’s governance. They include uncertainty and complexity associated with public hospital funding; increasing out-of-pocket costs incurred by patients; and questions about the place in the system and the purpose of private health insurance.

Also still on the agenda are unresolved access and workforce issues which compromise the universality of Australia’s health system, most notably for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples and those who live in more remote areas.

However the central reform issue relating to governance of the health system is not currently being debated.

The pivotal fact around which these current concerns revolve is the mixed (public/private) nature of the health system. Ten years ago the NHHRC report provided a serious challenge to the prevailing assumption that the best health system is one which has a mix of private and public enterprise.

Writing five years after the Commission’s report was presented to government, Christine Bennett renewed her faith in the following terms:

Moving to a single national public funder model with a national health authority responsible to the Council of Australian Governments could provide a system-wide approach that builds on the strengths of a national funder and purchaser.

This is not to say that the federal government would be the sole funder (federal and state contributions could be pooled), nor that the federal government would manage the public hospital system (state governments would continue to operate public hospitals with transparent activity-based funding, and private hospitals could add competition for funding of public patient care).

The independent national body could be an active purchaser across the continuum of services, building on the platform of activity-based funding and exploring more innovative purchasing over time. In the meantime, we could further explore ‘Medicare Select’, as recommended by the Commission, where greater consumer choice, competition and innovation in purchasing may also enable better use of our mixed system of public and private financing and provision.”

Bennett also reiterated the NHHRC’s strong belief about the need to do more for illness prevention, and the critical need for national leadership:

"We need to get more serious about prevention. As with tobacco products, a package of actions is required — from education, social marketing and behavioural change through to regulation and taxation measures. It requires time, investment and the involvement and collaboration of many parts of government, the health system and society. It must be evidence-led where possible, and new initiatives must be actively evaluated.

It is unacceptable to walk away from personal and shared responsibility. We should each have the starring role in our own health and health care decisions. However, inequities mean we do not all have the same life experiences and opportunities. Health literacy, educational attainment, employment, stable housing and many other factors may affect our capacity to make healthy choices. If we are serious about the good health of Australians, we must be serious about making healthy choices easier and fairly available.

In addition to health service reform, there is a serious need for a national action plan that crosses governments and portfolios to address factors in the social environment that affect health status.

Health needs to be a live issue on the national agenda. While there has been some valuable progress, we have not yet resolved the structural flaws in funding and governance that fragment health care delivery in Australia. We have focused largely on public health financing and public hospitals but have not yet considered innovative approaches, such as Medicare Select, to better use the private sector.

We have a long way yet to go on our reform journey, and we need political leadership and strong engagement with the health sector and community as we continue to move towards a sustainable, high-quality and responsive health system for all Australians.”

We need a public debate, made simple enough to be accessible to all of us, about why Australia persists with a mixed system.

Many of the deficiencies of our health system, and much of its complexity, exist only because it is a mixed system. There is duplication and overlap, making it hard to ensure a safe, smooth passage for the patient through an episode of care. There is cost and blame shifting. There are divided responsibilities for workforce planning.

With a unitary public system it would be simpler to identify and fill gaps in services and access; and it would be easier to establish the desirable level of national expenditure on health. In the current situation people are unable to understand how the financing arrangements work.

From deluge to drought

Ten years ago the enthusiasm for radical reorganisation of Australia’s health system dried up for a number of reasons before much was achieved.

Kevin Rudd and then Julia Gillard had to focus on the consequences of the global financial crisis, as well as the turmoil within their own political ranks. They were also consumed by the search for a budget surplus and the possibilities of tax reform outlined in the Henry Tax Review.

The COAG meeting promised by Kevin Rudd to focus on health reform was held on 7 December 2009. It was agreed at that meeting “that national health reform would be a central priority for 2010”.

The assertion that the Prime Minister gave Nicola Roxon, his Health Minister, a weekend to plan and manage the transition is perhaps apocryphal. But it is clear that both Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott (as then-Leader of the Opposition) were at the time enthusiastic about major reforms to the health system.

When the two of them debated health at the National Press Club the former was promising to take health reform to a referendum if the States and Territories failed to back his proposed change, while the latter was talking up abolishing regional health bureaucracies and moving control of hospitals (at least in the most popular states) to local boards.

This was not Tony Abbott’s only excursion into significant structural change in the health system. In his 2009 book Battlelines he said Medicare should fund dental care for every Australian. As it happened this was one of the proposals in the NHHRC’s final report: a Medicare-style scheme — labelled Denticare — for dental treatments.

However the wheel turned and the lake dried up again.

Some ground was gained and some lost. The Australian National Preventive Health Agency, proposed by the NHHRC and established in January 2011, targeted the prevention of obesity, tobacco use and harmful use of alcohol. It was abolished in the 2014-15 Budget.

Health Workforce Australia, established before the NHHRC in 2008 but which it  saw as providing a platform for a national, coordinated approach to health workforce planning, training and innovation, was also abolished in the 2014-15 Budget.

But all is not lost: we still have images of a time when fundamental health system reform was on the agenda and being seriously considered. Those images can remind us of the good times and inspire us to visit the vision splendid again some time in the future:

Health reform does not happen overnight. It takes time and patience, commitment and goodwill from all of us. But we also believe that there is a pressing need for action, and health reform must begin now.” Dr Christine Bennett, Chair, NHHRC, in letter of transmittal to Minister Roxon, 30 June 2009

COAG agreed that long-term health reform was required to deliver better services for patients, more efficient and safer hospitals, more responsive primary healthcare and an increased focus on preventative health.” COAG Communiqué, 7 December 2009